What everyone has warned about for months has finally come about. Russia has invaded Ukraine. Again. Russia waited for the end of the Winter Olympics so as not to upstage & therefore upset China and then gave the orders to advance. But this is not a new thing, it is the end of something.

I've visited Ukraine on multiple occasions, each time flying into Donetsk. Raised money for feeding programmes, orphan and widow care, drug rehabs and safe homes for women.

I've been pretty consistent on the topic of Russian aggression in Ukraine. An angry 🧵

— Phil Whittall (@simplepastor) February 24, 2022

I’m angry, I hate war and these events will end the lives of thousands, ruin the lives of hundreds of thousands and change the destiny of tens of millions. And this war will not immediately lead to a broader war, I very much doubt that but it will make other wars more likely in the medium term and I think increase the chances of nuclear proliferation and that makes the world a much more dangerous place.

Let me stick my neck out and make some predictions or simply state the obvious.

1. No country is going to come to the military aid of Ukraine. Not going to happen. Russia has warned them off and Ukraine simply isn’t worth it to them.
2. Any arms sent is insufficient to make any material difference. At this stage it’s just posturing.
3. Therefore the future of Ukraine is either what Putin decides it is or what the Ukrainian people decide it is.
4. Putin is guessing that what will happen in Ukraine now will be more similar to Crimea (acceptance) than to Donbas (resistance) but I’d be surprised if he really cared if it was the latter.
5. Putin can ignore all the West’s words. He will change the facts on the ground to whatever he thinks is most advantageous. If there is serious resistance Ukraine is rubble. If he doesn’t Ukraine is his.
6. Putin is banking that Russia can outlast western sanctions. I think he’s probably right. It will hurt for a bit and then in about 5 years everyone will slowly begin to accept ‘reality’. That’s part of his gamble.
7. Russia will care not a jot if millions of Ukrainians starting fleeing west. Costly for Europe, less resistance in Ukraine. Mostly win/win for Putin.

You’re about to see a lot of people confused as to why he is doing this but that’s because they’re thinking like coddled westerners and not Russians. The collapse of Russia’s western security has long been an itch they’ve been wanting to scratch and now they reckon they’re strong enough to do something about it.

A few other guesses and thoughts.

1. I’d expect Russia over time to bolster the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Its the replacement for the Warsaw Pact and it essentially asserts Russian control over those territories giving it a de facto buffer zone to its eastern and southern borders. But it’s always been the West that troubles it the most.
2. The one country that I think should be most nervous is Moldova. It borders Ukraine, has a breakaway republic supported by Russia and used to be part of the Soviet Union. If Russia succeeds in swallowing Ukraine whole it can add Transnistria too. Whether Putin wants the rest of Moldova or doesn’t really care is anyone’s guess right now but if suddenly Moldova borders Russia and not Ukraine, well don’t be surprised, that’s all.
3. The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances is an embarrassment to it’s western signatories. Worth less than the paper it was written on but we knew that in 2014.
4. No one is paying closer attention to this than China and Taiwan. Closely followed by Iran.

Some links

• Russian invasion of Ukraine begins – in pictures
• Ukraine crisis: Vladimir Putin address fact-checked
• Russia’s Shame – read this for a “we’ve only ourselves to blame perspective”
• Russia Keeps Punishing Evangelicals in Crimea