We are, we are told, on the verge of war. However, because no western country really cares all that much about Ukraine then it is unlikely that we will go to war. There are though compelling reasons why we should consider doing more to be on the side of Ukraine than our present stance of threatening financial sanctions.

Firstly, we should remember that Russia has already invaded and annexed a part of Ukraine, seven years ago when it took Crimea. What we are seeing today is not really anything new but really part two (or three depending how you count) of a long-term strategy of Putin. The Russian president seems set on reversing some of the losses of the fall of Soviet Union. And at approaching 70, I imagine there is a growing sense of urgency within his own mind.

Russia took Crimea, consolidated its claim and has made it all but impossible for any other future for Crimea. It is has virtually done the same for the Donbas but it seems that Putin wants more. He already declared that Ukraine is not really a country and that Ukraine has a place within the spiritual heritage of Russia. Now he wants to ensure that Europe & America put up as little resistance as possible and so he reminded everyone of Russia’s capability.

“Do you understand it or not, that if Ukraine joins NATO and attempts to bring Crimea back by military means, the European countries will be automatically pulled into a war conflict with Russia?” “Of course, Russia and NATO potentials are incomparable,” Mr Putin continued, referring to Moscow’s military might compared with that of NATO. “We understand it,” he said, adding: “But we also understand that Russia is one of the leading nuclear states.”

Russia’s warning on nuclear war reminds world ‘there’s a worse outcome’, says expert

He mentions Crimea but no one has made any serious attempt to make Russia give Crimea back. This isn’t about Crimea it’s about whatever he’s going to do next. It’s unlikely Putin actually plans on using nuclear missiles but he definitely doesn’t want anyone to forget that he has them. Here’s the message: stay away, it’s not worth it.

Yet it may be even more dangerous to let Russia invade Ukraine and only meet financial penalties than it is to try and stop him. Here’s why:

1. For 70 years we’ve resisted the idea of nations invading other nations for territorial and political gain. By and large the borders are where they were 70 years ago. Civil war (Balkans, Sudan for example) or collapse (Soviet Union) has redrawn the map but invasion largely hasn’t. This has been enforced by a balance of power and the presence of a Superpower. Further territorial gains in Ukraine would either undermine or remove that restraint. Where exactly are you going to send troops to stop an invasion, if we won’t stop one in Europe? The Sahara? The Caucuses? Africa?
2. Financial sanctions might work against Rwanda to stop it enlarging eastwards into Congo say, but will they work against a country that $600 billion in reserves like Russia? Probably not.
3. It would increase the likelihood of further nuclear proliferation. What stops India with a far bigger army from retaking Kashmir from Pakistan in Pakistan’s eyes? Nuclear weapons. What stops countries that have said they want to eliminate Israel? Nuclear weapons. What does North Korea believe will prevent a feared invasion? Nuclear weapons. What did Ukraine have but was forced to give up that would change the current situation if they still had them? Nuclear weapons. Now if you were a nation that was neighbour to a larger power that showed interest in invasion what do you think you might want to guarantee your security in the absence of someone else standing up for you? That’s right, nuclear weapons. We know Iran wants them, but maybe South Korea, or Japan, Turkey might begin to change their minds too.
4. Taiwan is different to the Ukraine. It is richer, more developed, less corrupt, more democratic and has several industries that the West is highly dependent on so the calculations are not the same but don’t think for a minute that China is not watching with great interest exactly what the West does and doesn’t do. They’re already convinced we have no stomach for a fight. Expect the pressure to ratchet up on Taiwan.
5. It will almost certainly lead to an increase in defence spending everywhere as governments look to their own defence, which will almost certainly come at the expense of other priorities.

In other words if Putin sends his troops into Ukraine for whatever aims he has in mind, he will not only once again redraw the borders of Europe but will reshape politics, reintroduce war as a foreign policy tool, expose the weakness of western alliances and give confidence to other large nations who wish to recapture smaller ones into their net. It’s a dangerous game.

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For more on my posts about nuclear weapons click here.