At the start of the war in Ukraine I made some predictions (also some here in this thread) and nearly six months on, it’s reasonable to see if any of them were close to the mark as a way of both learning and holding myself accountable for public remarks. If I’m wrong, I need to own it & think about why. I’ll combine the predictions from both places and make some comments.

1. No country is going to come to the military aid of Ukraine. Not going to happen. Russia has warned them off and Ukraine simply isn’t worth it to them. By this I meant, fighting (see point 2 about arms because I made that distinction), it wasn’t particularly clear in how I phrased it but that’s what I meant and in this I was correct. Score: 1
2. Any arms sent is insufficient to make any material difference. At this stage it’s just posturing. Well I’m probably wrong about this one, it certainly looks like the arms being sent now are starting to make a difference. Can and will the West keep the supplies up? Ukraine’s future depends on it, they are it seems utterly dependent on outside supplies. Score: 0
3. Therefore the future of Ukraine is either what Putin decides it is or what the Ukrainian people decide it is. Still true. Score 1
4. Putin is guessing that what will happen in Ukraine now will be more similar to Crimea (acceptance) than to Donbas (resistance) but I’d be surprised if he really cared if it was the latter. Hard to say, but certainly that was the narrative from early on. The Russians believed they would be welcomed & instead they were shot. That belief had to come from somewhere. Score 0.5
5. Putin can ignore all the West’s words. He will change the facts on the ground to whatever he thinks is most advantageous. If there is serious resistance Ukraine is rubble. If he doesn’t Ukraine is his. Ukraine is indeed rubble. Score 1.
6. Putin is banking that Russia can outlast western sanctions. I think he’s probably right. It will hurt for a bit and then in about 5 years everyone will slowly begin to accept ‘reality’. That’s part of his gamble. Sanctions certainly aren’t damaging Russia yet and probably won’t. Europe’s first big test will come when it gets cold. But undecided. I’ll score 0.5
7. Russia will care not a jot if millions of Ukrainians starting fleeing west. Costly for Europe, less resistance in Ukraine. Mostly win/win for Putin. Probably true. Score 1.
8. I’d expect Russia over time to bolster the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Its the replacement for the Warsaw Pact and it essentially asserts Russian control over those territories giving it a de facto buffer zone to its eastern and southern borders. But it’s always been the West that troubles it the most. No evidence of this yet. Score 0.
9. The one country that I think should be most nervous is Moldova. It borders Ukraine, has a breakaway republic supported by Russia and used to be part of the Soviet Union. If Russia succeeds in swallowing Ukraine whole it can add Transnistria too. Whether Putin wants the rest of Moldova or doesn’t really care is anyone’s guess right now but if suddenly Moldova borders Russia and not Ukraine, well don’t be surprised, that’s all. Moldova remains nervous and at risk. Russian has made noises about joining up it’s southern advances but has been unable to do so. Score 0.5
10. No one is paying closer attention to this than China and Taiwan. Closely followed by Iran. True and maybe true. Score 1.
11. Iran because it has a decision to make on nukes and it might suddenly get a partner/backer in Russia to minimise avoid western sanctions. But that’s just speculation. True. Score 1.
12. If Russia wins it will reintroduce war as a foreign policy tool. This is what is at stake but so far the outcome is unknown. Score 0.
13. Expose the weakness of western alliances. I have so far been wrong about this, it has had the opposite effect & strengthened NATO & the EU. Score 0.
14. Give confidence to other large nations who wish to recapture smaller ones. It shouldn’t be hard to think of some. I think the jury is out. On the one hand there is now a clear playbook for nuclear armed states, which is to threaten to use nuclear weapons if anyone else gets involved. China surely has taken note. On the other hand, if you haven’t and are relying on conventional weapons you could be in for a tough ride. Score 0.5
15. The only treaties that matter (pay attention Taiwan) are legal ones that commit a country to come to another’s aid (like NATO). If you haven’t got one of those and Ukraine hasn’t, you’re fair game. I think this is true and as evidence I present Sweden & Finland. Score 1.
16. Today is a dark day and darker days lie ahead. Unfortunately for us in the West we’ve no decent leadership, no coherent strategy, & sometimes no clue as to what we’re doing or why. Hmm. Anyone impressed by German leadership here? But Ursula von der Leyen has been more impressive. Does Joe Biden have a strategy? Who knows but NATO seems to be rising to the moment. Boris Johnson to be fair had his moments and I think showed the right stuff with regards to Ukraine but he’s gone and what is Macron up to? But overall the West has fudged it’s way through so far. Tougher days still to come. I think I score 0.5

Overall score 9.5/16 which is not bad & that could change but we won’t know until there is an end and that might be a long way off.