I live close to one of Stockholm’s largest shopping centres and business districts. The IT hub in Kista usually has about 50-70,000 people commute to work there every day. If you went to eat in the Food Court for lunch you’d find it hard to find a place amongst thousands of hungry workers. Not any longer. The shops are on reduced hours, the food court has people in it but finding a place to sit is straightforward enough. Even though the shops have remained open, signs encouraging distancing are everywhere, and the economic impact is easy to see.

Yet, despite a rocky April and May when the coronavirus ran amok through Stockholm’s care homes, Sweden’s approach has remained steady as she goes. Some attribute the high death rate in the spring entirely to a lack of lockdown. The research suggests there are many more factors in play. Other research suggests that teachers are not particularly at risk and certainly not as high risk as bus drivers. Keeping the schools open, it seems, was the right thing to do.

It did change how the Swedes holidayed but life is carrying on more or less as it has done since March and everyone seems to have largely adapted to the new normal. The aim was, as with many things here in Sweden, to find a sustainable strategy. In that they have, I think, succeeded. With cases falling Swedes have not had to endure lockdown nor endless discussions about what is and isn’t allowed afterwards. And we don’t have to wear masks.

In a fascinating article a doctor in the Swedish health system argues that ‘Covid is all but over’.

We are now down to around five people dying per day in the whole country, and that number continues to drop. Since people generally die around three weeks after infection, that suggests virtually no one is now being infected. If we assume around 0.5 per cent of those infected die (which I think is very generous, more on that later) that means three weeks back 1,000 people were getting infected per day in the whole country, which works out to a daily risk per person of getting infected of 1 in 10,000. And remember, the risk of dying is at the very most 1 in 200 if you actually do get infected. And that was three weeks ago. Basically, Covid is in all practical senses over and done with in Sweden. After four months.

In total Covid has killed under 6,000 people in a country of ten million. A country with an annual death rate of around 100,000 people. That makes Covid a mere blip in terms of its effect on mortality.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-dangerous-is-covid-a-swedish-doctor-s-perspective

He goes onto argue that perhaps after all COVID is a more similar to the flu after all but I think that might be still too early to say.

Covid has at present killed less than 6,000 in Sweden. It is very unlikely that the number of dead will go above 7,000. In an average year 700 people die of influenza in Sweden. Does that mean Covid is ten times worse than influenza? No, because influenza has been around for centuries while Covid is completely new. In an average influenza year most people already have some level of immunity because they’ve been infected with a similar strain previously, or because they’re vaccinated. So it is quite possible, or in fact likely, that the case fatality rate for Covid is the same as for influenza, or only slightly higher, and that the entire difference we have seen is due to the complete lack of any immunity in the population at the start of this pandemic.

However, I can’t imagine there being any changes to the guidelines and restrictions this year. Why would they? The population has adjusted and we still have an autumn and winter to navigate. COVID only really truly arrived here in March so I suspect no one wants to declare victory too early only to be embarrassed by another surge in cases. Especially when there is the familiar flu to deal with as well. No, I suspect the current situation is here to stay for a while longer and that was the plan all along.