A few years back I gave five reasons why war is more not less likely (also here) in the coming years and nothing has changed since then to make me think otherwise. Quite the opposite. In fact I first started drafting this post in 2021 (it somehow got stuck in my drafts folder) and since then two flashpoints shifted into conflict and one of them Palestine is still there.

The people whose job it is to prepare for such eventualities are shifting their rhetoric in countries where war had mostly been forgotten. Sweden & Finland have joined NATO, Sweden is upping its civil defences and reintroduced (in limited form) national service. The UK war chiefs have called for larger armed forces & a greater reservist force.

If you live in Europe, a significant cross border war is no longer a possibility but a reality and the idea that there won’t be future cross-border wars should be consigned to the bin.

Wearing my futurist (and pessimist) hat for a moment, churches need to brush off the dusty ethics section about just war, pacifism, military service and figure out what they think about it now and not when it is too late.

Ongoing conflict

Congo
Libya
Myanmar
Palestine
Sahel
Somalia
Sudan
Syria
Ukraine
Yemen

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Flashpoints

Afghanistan
Ethiopia
Guyana
Iran
Iraq
Kashmir
Korea
Nagorno-Karabakh
Somaliland
Taiwan

Here’s a longer list including plenty of other troublespots