In 2017 I made a prediction, that by 2030 there would be 3 more nuclear armed nations: North Korea, South Korea & Japan. With less than 5 years to go I’m still only partially right and mostly wrong.

In their February 7-13th edition The Economist ran two articles and a leader about nuclear proliferation. That, all by itself, should tell you something about the world we’re living in.

• America risks a nuclear-arms race with China
• Can Europe do nuclear deterrence without America?
• How to think about new risks of nuclear proliferation

If you fear Russia or China or North Korea or India or in fact all of your neighbouring countries and you do not trust America to come to your rescue then what do you do? For decades democracies that have genuine cause for concern have worked with the understanding that they won’t pursue their own nuclear deterrence because they trusted America. America didn’t want them to have their own deterrent because it complicates matters for them but also because it is a form of power. All these countries then had to, more or less, dance to America’s tune when it came to foreign policy. America genuinely was the leader of the free world.

That’s no longer true. America has openly cast doubt on whether it will come to the defence of allies. So if you can’t trust your protector what do you do?

In the remainder of this decade and the one after, it is increasingly likely that we will see the biggest ever shift in nuclear weapons policy.

Europe has a couple of choices – to codify the agreement and expand the arsenals of the UK & France or to help finance the development of a programme of a new nation: Germany? Sweden? Not so weird, when you consider they used to have one.

In Asia who feels most threatened? South Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

In the Middle East we’re already once again seeing Iran and their weapons programme at the centre of a new crisis. But the one to watch is Turkey.

Almost certainly no country in Africa can afford one and no country in South America needs one.

No democracy since India has pursued a nuclear deterrent. The first one to say they will is likely to burst the dam for others.

As The Economist said, “Just to set out these arguments shows how dangerous the world is becoming. The temptation is to take comfort in nostalgia. But that only deepens the perils that lie ahead.”