It’s an interesting question because any major trend that happens in the planet’s second most populous nation and second most powerful country may end up having global significance. So recently Pew undertook a study that sought to measure religion in China. In the article on Christianity estimates ranged between 20 million (2%) and 130 million (9%). I think that you’d agree that a difference of 110 million Christians makes quite a difference!

But knowing the truth is harder than you think especially when dealing with a Communist Country that seeks to control the church and in many places actively persecute it.

Counting Christians in China is difficult for several reasons. Officially, only churches authorized by the government are allowed to operate. But, in reality, many Christians worship in unauthorized venues known as “underground churches” (dixia jiaohui 地下教会) or “house churches” (jiating jiaohui 家庭教会). These Christians may be reluctant to reveal their identity. Likewise, members of the Chinese Communist Party, who are prohibited from holding a religious affiliation, might not disclose their Christian affiliation.⁵⁷

In recent years, the government has tightened control over Christian activities outside of registered venues, banned unauthorized evangelization online, and intensified its crackdown on unauthorized Protestant meeting points and underground Catholic churches, making Christianity a very sensitive topic in China. In addition, President Xi Jinping has called for the “Sinicization of religions,” a strategy that particularly affects non-traditional belief systems, including Christianity and Islam.

Challenges of measuring Christianity in China

Then there is the gap between conscious identity and actual practices. Around 3% say they are exclusively Christian but that doesn’t tell the whole story.

Looking cumulatively at the broadest, most inclusive survey measures of Christian affinity, as many as 8% of Chinese adults have some degree of connection to Christianity because they formally identify as Christian, believe in the Christian God or report a type of worship attendance common to Christians.

Is the Chinese church still growing?

Pew thinks that the CCP’s efforts to control Christianity in China is having a negative impact on the church but that just like everywhere else people convert & deconvert.

That said, church membership is not a reliable indicator. For one thing, membership rosters may double-count migrants who have been enumerated both by their rural “home” church and their “receiving” church in the city. Church rosters may also fail to account for members leaving Christianity. An analysis of Christian identification over time using China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data suggests significant flows both into and out of Christianity.

Among adults who identified with Christianity (3%) in the 2016 CFPS, about a third had not claimed Christianity as their religion when they were previously interviewed in 2012, suggesting that roughly 1% of Chinese adults converted to Christianity between the two survey years.

Meanwhile, among adults who identified with Christianity (2%) in the 2012 CFPS, about a quarter no longer did when asked again about their religion in the 2016 survey. And roughly one-in-five of the adults who self-identified as Christian in 2012 claimed no belief in either Jesus Christ or Tianzhu when reinterviewed in 2018. In other words, while many Chinese people convert to Christianity, some Chinese Christians apparently also leave the faith.

Interesting throughout and well worth reading.