If your job is any way routine and predictable the chances are that the answer is yes. It’s not just factory jobs that have been replaced by machines, but data analysis, taxi-drivers, and even doctors.
The extensive list of areas & industries where computers and robots are increasing their presence is significant and sometimes unexpected. Even my own industry of journalism has seen an algorithm write efficient (but not exciting) news releases. Computers are increasingly self-learning, self-improving and with the advent of cloud networking, new information can be dispersed at a phenomenal rate – artificial intelligence is improving at a staggering rate.
But what happens then? What happens if the robots takeover? Ford argues that, convincingly, that our economies are already struggling to create sufficient jobs as a result of automation, but if these trends increase what then?
Here’s how it works: at some point in an industry a machine becomes more efficient and cost-effective than a person (this already happens and it happens most where the work is routine & predictable, so it can be replaced by an algorithm). As some companies shift to an automated process they have an advantage over their rivals who then follow suit, leading to a mass shift away from humans.
If that scenario is played out in enough places in enough industries in a generation (without being replaced by new jobs for humans – and that’s not currently happening) then you find yourself with simply not enough people earning enough to do more than pay for the minimum (food & shelter).
So what happens to a mass consumer economy if there aren’t enough people working and therefore earning to consume enough to sustain the whole? At its scariest Ford sees (and you begin to see why) the whole system may be unsustainable.
This is the scenario that Martin Ford explores and disconcertingly it is more reality than science fiction. Ford does a great job of examining the current situation and his projections are generally reasonable and restrained. There are a few chapters that are more speculative but on the basis that currently so is the science – such as nano-technology and the idea of the singularity.
He does attempt what policies can be done to meet this challenge, and considers a universal basic income, changing how the market works so capital is taxed rather than income and a number of other suggestions but the most plausible scenario is that we are slowly suffocating our own economic system. Too wedded to the present system and unable to see a way out – the rebalancing is unlikely to be smooth.
The book slightly fizzles out rather than concluding with something to really hang your hat on. So the book just tailed off towards the end for me. However, for anyone with an interest in future global trends then this is book that must be read.